Raw Material Shortage In 2016 Seamless Pipe Soared 71.46%
Jan 05, 2017
According to the price monitoring, since early 2016, rose 20 # seamless tube market price swings.From the beginning of January 2414 yuan/ton, up 1725 yuan/ton to 4139 yuan/ton, up 71.46%.On December 16 at its highest level 20 # seamless tube, the price is 4174 yuan/ton, a rise of 72.91% in the early, record for three years.Main reason is that the tube billet supplies raw materials, especially late environmental inspection, shortage of raw material, cause the market is not available output, gradually lift seamless pipe price.
Second, the influence factors analysis
Products: throughout the year, tube factory frequently make raised ex-factory price of seamless tube, from January 2414 yuan/ton, rise to December, 4200-4250 yuan/ton, up 1725 yuan/ton.Well the requirements of the seamless pipe market, prices are now rising.
Industrial chain: the upstream side, 20 # tube bloom also soared in 2016.In the year of 1800 yuan/tons up to 3550 yuan/tons, rose 1750 yuan/tons, rose by nearly 100%.Changzhou currently 20 # hot-rolled tube billet steel, zhongtian, Oriental standard price price respectively is 3940 yuan/ton, 3860 yuan/ton, 3730 yuan/ton.At the end of a slight fall.
Downstream, November 1, 2015 commercial housing sales area of 1.09253 billion square meters, rose 7.4% from a year;Sales of 7.4522 trillion yuan, up 15.6% year-on-year, sales data compared to the overall improvement.Rise in real estate sales, investment, according to real estate development investment has positive signs, good construction steel market.
Industry: 1 - November 2016 the national crude steel output of 738.937 million tons, up 1.1% from a year earlier.Pig iron production 643.261 million tons, up 0.4%;Steel output was 1.043443 billion tons, up 2.4% from a year earlier.Because of the housing policy in 2015 to relax, vehicle purchase tax halve, infrastructure investment, sustained and rapid growth and boost manufacturing production stability, steel consumption demand has gradually rebounded in 2016, is expected to achieve positive growth for the whole year.To predict the apparent consumption of crude steel in 2016 or 705 million tons, crude steel production or around 805 million tonnes.
October 1-2016 production of seamless steel pipe 13.159 million tons, down 57.33% year-on-year.Near the end, many factories shut down, by selling stock is given priority to, on-demand procurement market, thinly traded.
Three, afternoon prediction
Throughout 2016, 20 # seamless tube pipe demand in raw material prices, sharply reduce the number of cases, the seamless pipe price rise.In December as the traditional consumption off-season, near year end, downstream demand, the businessman is in no hurry to stock up, look at the current sales for replenishment, maintain a certain inventory, raw material pipe price is lower.Business club, analysts said the economy in 2017 the main tone is steady, as in 2016 to encourage real estate policy, the phenomenon of monetary easing may be tightening, seamless tube should be given priority in the high and volatile prices.In the first quarter of 2016 seamless tube prices will start in the spring season or slightly pull up;In the second quarter of the off-season seamless pipe price or back;In the peak season there are still a small wave to pull up, in the fourth quarter of stability in the weak.
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